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Sample translations submitted: 2
French to English: Stock Price Valuation based on fundamentals General field: Social Sciences Detailed field: Economics
Source text - French L’évaluation du prix des actions par les fondamentaux
Depuis 1920, le prix des actions en France, comme partout dans le monde, a connu d’importantes variations. Leurs conséquences dommageables sur l’activité économique réelle ont conduit à s’interroger sur le rôle des banques centrales, et à se demander si ces dernières ne devaient pas prendre en compte le prix des actifs financiers dans leurs objectifs. Mais à quelle valeur de référence peuvent-elles comparer le prix effectif des actions ?
Nous proposons comme benchmark une modélisation du prix du capital, dépendant du partage de la valeur ajoutée et de la productivité apparente du capital (les variables fondamentales), et faisant des profits agrégés la composante essentielle du prix des actions. Le prix réel des actions dépend alors de l’actualisation du taux de rendement réel du capital (le profit réel d’une unité de capital), c’est-à-dire le produit du taux de marge et de la productivité. La stabilité en longue période des variables fondamentales et leur comportement « markovien » permettent d’écrire que le prix réel du capital est une fonction linéaire du profit réel courant. Dans la longue période, le prix réel du capital définit une constante, le prix naturel du capital, dont il ne peut s’éloigner en courte période que si les fondamentaux s’écartent eux-mêmes de leurs valeurs de longue période. Nous confrontons la valeur observée d’un indice du marché français à sa valeur fondamentale décrite par le modèle. Des écarts importants sont observés, attestant que les variables fondamentales, si elles ont un effet significatif sur le prix du capital, n’expliquent pas la majeure partie de ses variations. Nous observons que le marché français est soumis à des cycles longs, dont la durée se mesure en décennies, et dont les bulles spéculatives ne constituent que la partie la plus visible.
Le marché français aurait connu trois de ces cycles depuis 1920, la naissance du cycle actuel remontant au début des années 80. Durant ces cycles, le prix des actions connaît une phase d’appréciation, associée à une valorisation excessive du prix des actifs au regard des profits, puis une phase de baisse associée à la correction et à la sous-évaluation. L’importante volatilité des prix par rapport aux fondamentaux produit une estimation très variable du prix naturel du capital. L’incertitude entourant l’estimation de cette constante de longue période (son intervalle de confiance à un niveau de 95% varie du simple au double), en dépit de l’utilisation d’une chronique longue d’un siècle, démontre qu’il n’est guère possible d’estimer de façon fiable la valeur fondamentale des actions. La durée des cycles interdit par ailleurs d’attribuer les écarts de prix à des erreurs d’appréciation temporaires des agents. A moins de croire que les agents puissent se tromper durablement, des mécanismes déstabilisateurs puissants, liés au crédit et à l’endettement, sont certainement à l’origine de ces cycles. Toute politique monétaire à destination des marchés financiers, qui ne corrigerait pas les déséquilibres liés au crédit et à l’endettement, ne produirait sans doute que des effets temporaires sur le prix des actifs, le symptôme persistant si la cause demeure.
***
Les cycles financiers, dont l’existence ne peut être niée, trouvent chez les économistes différentes origines selon leur degré d’attachement à la théorie de l’efficience des marchés de capitaux. Sont-ils des cycles d’équilibre résultant de variations dans les « fondamentaux », ou sont-ils des cycles de déséquilibre résultant d’une interaction entre le crédit et l’évaluation financière, notifiant un écart parfois durable entre le prix des actifs financiers et celui qu’ils devraient afficher ? Si la seconde réponse est la bonne, alors il apparaît avec force que la finance n’est pas neutre, et l’existence de ces cycles financiers devrait être une préoccupation de premier plan.
Les chercheurs en économie monétaire se sont particulièrement préoccupés de cette question, se demandant si la politique monétaire devait prendre en compte le prix des actifs. La sensibilité des entreprises et des établissements de crédit aux prix des actifs (canal large du crédit et canal du capital bancaire) justifie que ces prix puissent être pris en compte dans certaines circonstances. Les banquiers centraux ont pourtant repoussé à ce jour le principe de l’introduction de la stabilisation des prix d’actifs dans la définition de leurs objectifs finaux. Deux motifs essentiels expliquent ce rejet. D’abord, la perspective de soutenir les marchés en cas de baisse excessive des prix leur déplaît fortement. Ce serait s’assujettir aux marchés, et ouvrir la porte à tous les excès. Ensuite, même s’il leur convenait de mettre en œuvre une telle politique, comment pourrait-elle être appliquée si on ne sait pas comment évaluer correctement les actifs ?
Pourtant, une évaluation objective des actifs est nécessaire à l’établissement de normes comptables, si l’on veut encadrer l’activité des banques et autres intermédiaires financiers. Le principe de la fair value, qui valorise à la valeur de marché les actifs détenus par ces établissements, rend particulièrement instable l’évaluation de leurs bilans.
Translation - English Stock Price Valuation based on fundamentals.
Since 1920, there has been significant variation in stock prices, both in France and in the rest of the world. The adverse effect of these variations on real economic activity has led to a reassessment of the role played by central banks, raising the question of whether banks should take financial asset prices into account when setting their objectives. However, what reference value can effective stock prices be compared to?
This article proposes a model of capital asset pricing as a benchmark, depending on the distribution of value added and the apparent productivity of capital (the fundamental variables), making aggregate profit the essential component in stock pricing. The real price of stocks therefore depends on the actual discounted rate of return of capital (the actual profit of a unit of capital), ie the product of the margin rate and productivity. The long-term stability of fundamental variables and their ‘Markovian’ behaviour means that the real price of capital can be described as a linear function of actual current profit. In the long-term, the real price of capital defines a constant, the natural price of capital. The real price of capital can move away from the natural price for short periods, only if the fundamentals themselves deviate from their long-term value. I compared the observed value of an index of the French market to its fundamental value as described by the model. The significant gaps which emerged show that even if they have a marked effect on the price of capital, fundamental variables do not adequately explain its variation. The French market appears to be subject to long cycles spanning decades, of which speculative bubbles constitute the most visible part. Three of these cycles have occurred since 1920, with the origin of the present cycle going back to the 1980s. During these cycles, stock prices undergo a phase of appreciation associated with excessive valuation of assets in relation to profits, followed by a phrase of depreciation associated with correction and undervaluation. The significant price volatility in relation to fundamentals generates strong variations in estimations of the natural price of capital.
The fact that there is uncertainty surrounding the estimation of this constant over a long period (the confidence interval at a level of 95% varies between simple and double ), even when considered over the course of a century, demonstrates that it is practically impossible to reliably estimate the fundamental value of stocks. Furthermore, the duration of cycles makes it impossible to attribute the price gaps to temporary appreciation errors by agents. Unless agents are committing such errors over a long period, powerful destabilising mechanisms linked to credit and debt are undoubtedly at the root of these cycles. Any monetary policy with regards to financial markets which does not correct imbalances linked to credit and debt will certainly only have a temporary effect on stock prices: as long as the cause persists, so will the symptom.
***
The existence of financial cycles cannot be disputed, but economists hold differing views on how they originate, depending on their degree of attachment to the efficient market hypothesis. While some believe they are equilibrium cycles resulting from variations in the ‘fundamentals,’ others argue they are disequilibrium cycles resulting from interaction between credit and financial valuation, corresponding to an often lasting gap between the observed and expected price of financial assets. If the second explanation is correct, it is a compelling indication that finance is not neutral, and the existence of financial cycles should be a primary concern.
Economists researching monetary economics are particularly concerned with this question and suggest that monetary policy should take stock prices into account. The susceptibility of companies and credit institutions to stock prices (balance sheet channel and bank capital channel) warrants taking these prices into account under certain circumstances. However, central bankers have been reluctant to integrate measures to stabilise asset prices into their financial objectives. There are two basic reasons for this rejection. Firstly, central bankers are vehemently opposed to the idea of supporting markets when there is a dramatic drop in prices, believing that to do so would mean to subject themselves to the market and open the floodgates to all kinds of excess. Secondly, even if they were to see fit to implement such a policy, it is unclear how this could be applied unless an accurate method for determining the value of assets can be established.
Nevertheless, an objective valuation of assets is a prerequisite to establishing accounting standards if we wish to regulate the activity of banks and other financial intermediaries. The principle of fair value, whereby assets held by those establishments are valued according to their market value, makes the valuation of their balance sheets particularly unstable.
Spanish to English: Gofundme appeal General field: Medical Detailed field: Medical (general)
Source text - Spanish Soy [name] y soy profesor del departamento de xxxxxxxx de la Universidad xxxxxx de Venezuela.
Hace 3 años, a raíz de una caída en bicicleta, sufrí dos fracturas en el cubito y una en el radio con exposición ósea. En ese momento fui intervenido para alinear el antebrazo izquierdo y colocar material de síntesis (placas).Desafortunadamente no limpiaron bien y quedaron bacterias, mi cuerpo las combatió durante todo ese tiempo, hasta que en Mayo 2018 perdí fuerza en el brazo con mucho dolor y el hueso se dobló. El medico lo diagnostico como una pseudo-artrosis del radio, el cubito estaba bien.
Fui intervenido nuevamente con ese diagnóstico. En ese momento se encontró una sustancia verde sobre la placa y el hueso y tejido necrosado, sin embargo, el medico continuo con el plan de limpiar, cortar hueso muerto y volver a colocar placas de acero quirúrgico. En la primera ocasión fueron de titanio.
Una semana después de la operación ya tenía una celulitis que no cedía, y una vez llego el informe del patólogo 10 días después, el diagnostico era Osteomielitis, aunque el medico no estuvo de acuerdo.
Consulte otras opiniones medicas de traumatólogos e infectologos y coincidieron en que nunca se trató de una pseudo-artrosis sino una osteomielitis, no debiendo haber sido colocado durante la segunda operación ni material de síntesis ni injerto, ya que se infecta, sino colocar un tutor o cemento óseo y tratar con antibiótico durante 6 semanas.
El medico insistió en que se podía salvar lo que se había hecho para ya un poco más del mes con el brazo supurando a pesar de los antibióticos, no había otra opción más que volver a operar.
Mi tercera intervención, se complicó debido a que el quirófano estaba contaminado, además de la bacteria que tenía en el hueso, me infecte con cuatro bacterias más desarrollando septicemia, convirtiéndose una cirugía muy sencilla en una situación de extrema gravedad. [moved to start of text] Sin embargo, lo supere, me hicieron el tratamiento de osteomielitis y ahora toca con el apoyo de otro grupo de médicos, la intervención definitiva que es la reconstrucción del radio, extraer el cemento óseo, hacer limpieza quirúrgica, colocar injerto y la placa.
Esta última operacióntiene un costo en dólares que no es posible para mi cubrir en razón de la situación económica por la que atraviesa Venezuela y que lamentablemente me alcanza, por lo cual necesito de toda su generosidad para lograr la intervención en el menor tiempo posible.
De antemano, les agradezco su apoyo y solidaridad en este difícil momento
[Name]
Translation - English My name is [name], and I am a Professor at the department of xxxxxxxx at the xxxxx University in Venezuela.
What happened
Three years ago, I fractured both bones in my forearm falling from my bike. What is usually a simple operation developed into a life-threatening situation due to various complications. I had to have surgery to fix plates to the bone in order to align the forearm and allow the fracture to heal. However, the wound was not properly cleaned after surgery and got infected. I was subsequently in a lot of pain and was diagnosed with pseudoarthrosis, which means the fracture had not successfully healed and would require further surgery.
When I had my second operation, the surgeons discovered necrotic tissue under the bone plates and a week later I had already developed an infection (cellulitis) which was not showing any sign of getting better. When I finally got the formal diagnosis 10 days later, I was told I had osteomyelitis, a rare, serious bone infection.
I consulted specialists who disagreed with the initial diagnosis and management and believed they should have used bone cement and administered antibiotics to prevent infection in the first place. As my doctor believed further surgery was the only solution, I had a third operation, which resulted in complications and I contracted further infections and developed septicaemia.
Why I am asking for donations
Thankfully, I eventually recovered from the third operation, but I will need a further, final procedure to reconstruct the fractured bones, remove the existing plates and insert new ones, and perform surgical cleaning.
Due to the economic situation in Venezuela, I cannot cover the costs of this operation on my own, so I am asking for your generosity to help reach my target of $5000 as soon as possible so I can get the treatment I need to finally recover.
Any contribution you can make would be greatly appreciated.
Thank you so much for helping me out in this difficult situation.
[Name]
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Translation education
Graduate diploma - University of Bristol
Experience
Years of experience: 6. Registered at ProZ.com: Mar 2017.
French to English (University of Bristol, verified) French to English (Cambridge University (Lang. Degrees)) German to English (Cambridge University (Lang. Degrees)) Spanish to English (University of Bristol, verified)
Working from Spanish, French and German into English (UK), I offer versatility and flexibility to language service providers and other companies with international client bases.
With a background in Theoretical Linguistics and EFL and having learned my source language through immersion living and working in France, German and Spain, I bring a keen awareness of language and cross-cultural communication to my work. I believe a good translator must be a good writer and must understand the commercial dimension of their work, which is why I hope to expand my professional repertoire to multilingual copywriting, marketing, localisation and multilingual SEO. I endorse the BS EN ISO 17100-2015 Requirements for Translation Services. I have experience working with SDL Trados Studio 2019 and MemoQ and am eager to further develop my technological competence. Having completed a Postgraduate Diploma in Translation, and an internship with Meinrad in Wolfsberg, Austria, I now work as a freelance translator and am currently based in Oxford, United Kingdom.
Postgraduate Diploma in Translation (Spanish and French)
BA Education with Modern Languages (French and German)
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